June 17, 2010

BP & THE OIL: 20! BILLION! DOLLARS! (WELL, NOT REALLY, DR. EVIL, TRY A BIT MORE LIKE 143! BILLION! DOLLARS!)

Let us take a look at some numbers, again, shall we? They're fun. They show how much both BP and the government are lying, have been lying and will lie as long as they can open their mouths and get away with it.

None (April 22)

BP and the U.S. Coast Guard originally said there was no evidence of oil leaking from the Deepwater Horizon well after the rig exploded and sank

1,000 barrels a day (April 24)

Initial leak estimate reported by BP and the Coast Guard

5,000 barrels a day (April 28)

Revised Coast Guard estimate (originally disputed by BP, which claimed the number was lower)

12,000 to 19,000 barrels a day (May 27)

First estimate from a government-appointed team of scientists called the Flow Rate Technical Group

25,000 barrels a day (May 27)

Alternative estimate suggested by a subgroup of the Flow Rate Technical Group

25,000 to 40,000 barrels a day (June 10)

Latest estimate from the Flow Rate Technical Group, based on new data from the leak

60,000 barrels a day (May 5)

What BP told Congress would be a worst-case scenario for the amount of oil spewing from the seafloor

70,000 barrels a day (May 14)

Estimate from Purdue University engineering professor Steve Wereley based on independent analysis of video of the undersea leak

100,000 barrels a day (May 21)

Upper limit of flow estimate from four independent scientists, including Wereley, in a New York Times op-ed
But hell, who's counting? Well, let me be the one to do it for you... again. According to this article (which was one with most recent numbers from BP itself I could find, regarding their "capping" success), BP manages to cap 16,000 barrels per 24 hours since they started (that is not quite correct, but what the hell, let's use the higher number) on June 3rd.

What I'm not going to use is the government estimates. As you can see from the list above, their scientists are either on BP's payroll or idiots.

Instead, we are going with the worst-case scenario presented by BP to Congress on may 5th (which I am afraid is still not nowhere what the realities are): 60,000 barrels a day.

We are roughly 60 days in. 46 of those days were without capping.

So we are talking 46 x 60,000.

14 days we have the capping. And like I said, we will use the higher numbers. So it would be (60,000 - 16,000) x 14

We are at least, according to BP itself, another 30 days away from full "containment/capping". Since that includes a gradual uptake of the oil siphoned off, we'll try to do an average here, over 30 days, and say/guess it's then 40,000 they can take out of the 60,000 per day (on average over 30 days, remember that)

So that would be (60,000-40,000) x 30

Let's add this all up, shall we?

60,000 x 46
(60,000 - 16,000) x 14
(60,000 - 40,000) x 30
___________________
= 3,976,000 barrels of oil

And that is if BP can get it gradually down to zero by Mid-July. Which – to be perfectly honest – I do not believe in.

It's 16 times, then, the amount of oil spilled by the Exxon Valdez.

If... they can completely stop it by Mid-July!

But... and this is the bad thing. It is not regionally contained. Due to the fact that the Valdez spilled its shit only on the surface, only one regional segment was directly affected (yes, I know, that is a bit of an over-simplification, but still...)

This one here is deep water. Which means the non-existent oil plumes that scientists swam through and that BP's answer to was "well, first you'd have define what an oil plume is"...

... one of the most perfect Clintonisms since the original "define what the word is... is"...

... the oil is moved forward not only on the surface, but – much more dangerously so – through the deep water currents. Hell, don't just fuck up Lousiana, if you can have so much more fun elsewhere as well!

Oh, as for monetary recompensation. The original sum awarded to the human victims of the Valdez spill was 5 billion dollars. In 1989. If you do some inflation accounting (and yes, I am perfectly aware that inflation accounting is always merely an approximation, but again, what the hell?)... a 1989 dollar is worth 1.79 dollars in 2010...

... bringing the initial punitive damages of the Valdez to 8.95 billion dollars today!

Considering that this gusher is going to be at the very least 16 times that...

... you'll get a number that comes at least somewhat close to what BP should pay out.

What is that number?

143,2 BILLION DOLLARS.

So, Barry... before you masturbate yourself into your "success blanket" that you indubitably own and that is likely to be carried by Rahm Emmanuel...

... look at that number. Look at it very closely. And don't you fucking come to me again to pat yourself on the shoulder for getting a completely arbitrary bullshit number from a fucking meeting with the criminals responsible for all of this. A number that you don't even yet have in real cash.

It took me all of 35 minutes to put these numbers together, and I had to do it without experts and only going on the information that is publicly availabe. Don't tell me you don't know them. Because that would make you George W. Bush, and we all know you are not, right?

Right?